9/17/2023 0 Comments Pent upThose scenarios provide a range of key aggregate variables related to consumer spending (for example, disposable income, employment, private consumption) and are developed based on a set of assumptions regarding virus control and economic response to the crisis. We relied on McKinsey’s economic scenarios developed in collaboration with Oxford Economics as the basis for our macroeconomic assumptions. To do this, we made assumptions about disposable income, savings, and consumption mix evolution as well as behavioral assumptions about the likely consumption rebound after the pandemic ends. Our main objective was to understand how consumer demand by segment was likely to recover after the pandemic. By cross-tabulating income and age criteria, we arrive at nine consumer segments that we use to assess the shape of post-pandemic consumption. For age, we divided households into three groups based on head-of-household age: young (<35, for the United Kingdom only <30), middle age (35–64, United Kingdom 30–64), and older (65+). For the United States we used fixed income brackets due to data limitations where low income is $100,000. For income, we took a distribution-based approach and classified households into low income (first and second quintile), middle income (third and fourth quintile), and high income (fifth quintile) for France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We do this for four countries: France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In this report we divide consumers into nine segments based on their disposable income and age, as both criteria shape the size and structure of consumption. Then, drawing on in-depth analysis of six case studies from sectors that cover almost three quarters of consumer spending and encompass a broad spectrum of consumer life, we determine how the mix of consumer demand is likely to evolve and which pandemic-induced behavioral changes are likely to “stick.” We divide consumers into nine segments based on age and income to determine the size and shape of the consumer demand recovery. In our analysis, we examine consumer spending in China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Understanding what that means for consumer behavior and the recovery in consumer spending-a critical factor for the global economic recovery-is the focus of this report. While there is reason to be optimistic for a robust recovery in consumer spending once the COVID-19 virus is controlled due to pent-up demand and a significant accumulation of savings, the pandemic, like other crises, will leave lasting marks. Employees able to work from home have maintained jobs and income, accumulating more savings while forced to cut back on spending from lock downs, travel restrictions, and health fears others lost jobs and income or closed down businesses and have struggled to pay the bills. And just as the coronavirus has affected regions and individuals in vastly different ways, the economic impact has also been very uneven. All of a sudden, consumers were forced to change behavior, companies to transform business models, and governments to adjust regulations. Consumer spending, a major source of economic activity, collapsed as the first wave of the pandemic swept across countries in early 2020.
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